Teri Moren has issued another surprising injury update before the Indiana’s game against Ohio State tomorrow, and the Hoosiers are expected to suffer a huge setback.
After three top-four finishes in the previous four seasons, the Indiana Hoosiers (16-9, 8-6) are in transition following the departure of forward Mackenzie Holmes, the program’s all-time leading scorer. Thursday’s trip to Assembly Hall presents numerous opportunity for Ohio State women’s basketball (22-3, 11-3) to capitalize.
A win provides the Buckeyes a quad-one victory, the highest degree of victory considered by the NCAA Tournament Committee for March Madness seeding, defeats the Hoosiers on the road for the first time in four years, and allows new members of the Scarlet and Gray to play in a hostile atmosphere.
Despite a dismal record in comparison to Indiana’s recent success, the Hoosiers still have some good returning players. Also, a pair of transfers joined head coach Teri Moren to help bolster an Indiana team that is still in contention for postseason basketball following the conference tournament.
Preview
Over the last four seasons, matches between the Buckeyes and Hoosiers have favored the Scarlet and Gray. After losing five straight games against Indiana in three seasons, Ohio State defeated Indiana 79-75 in the 2023 Big Ten Tournament, erasing a 24-point deficit.
The Buckeyes won their next game against the Hoosiers in Columbus, but Thursday marks the first time the Scarlet and Gray return to Bloomington since January 2023. Guards Yarden Garzon, Chloe Moore-McNeil, and Sydney Parrish continue to play for coach Moren. Moore-McNeil provides senior leadership at point guard, while Garzon and Parrish are lethal three-point shooters.
Former Penn State guard Shay Ciezki, who transferred to Indiana last offseason, joins the trio of guards. While Ciezki doesn’t shoot as well from beyond the arc as now-graduated Hoosier Sara Scalia, the junior approaches the basket relentlessly and will test Ohio State’s defense.
The obvious reason the Hoosiers are struggling this season is postseason play. Former two-time AP All-American Holmes left for the WNBA in the offseason, bringing with her a 65 percent shooting efficiency, primarily from within the paint.
Coach Moren recruited senior forward Karoline Striplin from the Tennessee Volunteers to help cover the void. After appearing 91 times for the Volunteers in three seasons, the 6-foot-3 forward adjusted slowly to Indiana’s style, but he enters Thursday having started the previous eight games and averaging 12.8 points per game.
However, Indiana still struggles to convert second-chance scoring opportunities and extra possessions. The Hoosiers have 80 offensive rebounds in 14 games, the fewest of any Big Ten club, with the next team up getting 112 offensive boards and Ohio State coming in at No. 16 with 125. Forward Ajae Petty and center Elsa Lemmilä now have a unique advantage in offensive rebounding.
Indiana has the fifth-lowest turnover rate in the Big Ten (14.2), while the Minnesota Golden Gophers only handed the ball away 10.1 times per game until losing it 19 times against the Buckeyes.
The level of experience in Indiana’s backcourt, particularly graduate seniors Moore-McNeil and Parrish, has the potential to reduce turnovers.
Moore-McNeil will face Ohio State freshman point guard Jaloni Cambridge. Moore-McNeil has started the last 89 games for the Indiana Hoosiers, serving as a leader both on and off the court for coach Moren.
Nonetheless, Cambridge is on a tear. The rookie set a personal Big Ten single-game record of 29 points against Iowa and has averaged 16.8 points, 5.2 rebounds, four assists, and 2.2 steals over the last five games. How will Ohio State’s top underclassmen fare in an environment that promises to be loud and aggressive?
Indiana currently has a three-game winning run at Assembly Hall, sandwiched between two defeats. The Hoosiers have lost two of their previous three games and have not defeated any club in the top half of the conference rankings.
All Scarlet and Gray perimeter players must be prepared to face a barrage of three-pointers. Indiana leads the conference in Big Ten play with 8.36 three-pointers made per game. Ohio State is third in league play, limiting opponents to 30.1 percent from beyond the arc, but has allowed the Golden Gophers and Iowa Hawkeyes to shoot 33.3 percent and 40 percent, respectively, in the last two games.
If this tendency continues on Thursday, it will not only feed the Hoosier faithful, but will also dig the Buckeyes into a hole from which they will be unable to recover. The focus will be on overall defense. Cotie McMahon, a junior forward, has recently spoken out about a lack of intensity and players failing to do their jobs on defense.
Is Thursday the game in which Ohio State puts together a complete 40 minutes of consistent defense? The Buckeyes have clearly not achieved their peak this season, but with four games remaining, head coach Kevin McGuff’s team is seeking for signs that they are on their way.
McGuff recently favored 6-foot-6 freshman Lemmilä and redshirt sophomore guard Kennedy Cambridge, and the Buckeyes benefited from their defensive presence. Will McGuff use the two more against the Hoosiers or give his complete starting lineup a chance to take the lead?
This season, the Buckeye coach isn’t hesitant to put a starter on the bench if the play doesn’t seem good. McGuff has also experimented with who he puts on the court together. In the last three games, graduating senior guard Madison Greene has started playing alongside Jaloni Cambridge, providing the freshman greater attacking flexibility while Greene provides stability. All four of the Hoosiers’ starting guards are upperclassmen with big-game experience, so this is the expected lineup on Thursday.
Regardless of who gets Ohio State there, if the Buckeyes win, it will be their third quad one win. The Scarlet and Gray’s four quad one games entering Thursday are the fewest among the top-16 teams released by the NCAA Tournament Committee on Sunday. A win will strengthen the Buckeyes’ chances of hosting the first and second rounds of the NCAA Tournament. Losing might enhance the case for sending the Scarlet and Gray on the road for March Madness.
Projected starters
Ohio State
Team members include Jaloni Cambridge, Chance Gray, Taylor Thierry, Cotie McMahon, and Ajae Petty.
Lineup Notes:
Cotie McMahon surpassed 500 career rebounds in Ohio State’s victory over Iowa on Monday.
Jaloni Cambridge’s 2.1 steals per game ranks fifth in the Big Ten.
On Monday, Ohio State’s three starters who were not named Jaloni Cambridge or Cotie McMahon combined for 11 points against the Hawkeyes.
Indiana’s roster includes Chloe Moore-McNeil, Shay Ciezki, Sydney Parrish, Yarden Garzon, and Karoline Striplin.
Lineup Notes:
Yarden Garzon leads Indiana’s starters in long shooting, averaging 2.4 per game and a team-high 39.9 percent.
Karoline Striplin faced Ohio State once, scoring five points and one rebound in 11 minutes last season as the Buckeyes upset the Volunteers in Knoxville.
Indiana ranks third in the conference for free throw percentage, shooting 79.7 percent from the line.
Prediction
The Hoosiers stand to benefit more from defeating the Buckeyes than the other way around. Indiana is still looking for a major victory against a high conference club, and Ohio State has struggled against the Hoosiers in recent years.
Indiana will get out to a fast start by feeding off the fans, but the loudness will also aid the visitors in the full court press. Communication will be critical for the Hoosiers, but as the decibels rise in Assembly Hall, the Buckeyes will force mistakes.
Taylor Thierry will have a solid performance, with her athletic ability giving her an attacking advantage inside the post that Indiana cannot match. Ohio State will capitalize on Thierry, Petty, McMahon, and Cambridge’s ability to penetrate inside against Indiana’s less physical inside presence.
Ohio State will pull away in the second half, winning the game in regulation.
